Isolation has never solved any epidemic or pandemic, and it will not solve this one. What we are doing is a mere administrative exercise to allow the health systems to cope, it is not a valid action from an epidemiology point of view.
I have thought whether it is a good decision to do it or not and I confess to have mix feelings about it, there are arguments both sides, but facing such uncertainty I believe One has to conclude it is a good decision since, in theory, the amount of deaths will be lowered by the fact that the health systems will be able to cope.
But this in itself is a sign of what our lifestyle and health care criteria has become: prolong life at all costs and push through even with chronic diseases, could we not instead accept nature as is? Accept that death is the most essential aspect of life? Is dying alone in a hospital with respiratory problems the end game that we should aspire to so long as life has been prolonged? I don’t think so and this is why I believe the future criteria for health care should be preventive, not treatment based. I’d add to this a dose of acceptance of life as it is.
Coming back to the present situation, the question [and principal argument] is: for how long?
I can think of 2 ways fwd out of this:
1/ A vaccine: and we know how unlikely or unreasonable and anti-viral vaccine at world level is.
2/ To have the virus. And this doesn’t mean this virus, but all the mutations and strands that we’ll [inevitably] see in the future.
Let’s analyze this a bit further. A vaccine is no “cure” against any germs [virus or bacteria], it simply prepares and helps the body deal with an infection when it occurs. So to consider a global vaccination process that will keep everybody “safe” and this evolving with different strands or mutations of any given virus seems impossible to me. This is why isolation has never solved any viral epidemic and never will.
If, however, this is one of many actions we need to take or consider for the future, I believe RNA vaccines will be more efficient simply because they are quicker and cheaper to produce. In this scenario, One has to also consider the importance of direct/rapid human testing that would become essential if this option will ever have a chance, since it is a time dependent solution.
Now let’s think about the second option, One that allows for an as controlled as possible rate of infection that does not [hopefully] saturate the health system but keeps the economic circulation flowing. It is the most efficient scenario I can think of within the context we find ourselves at.
So the big picture is clear, we need to shift the focus from reducing contagion rate to help hospitals and health care systems to cope to focus in improving the immune systems of those in isolation, so again, it is about when to do this shift. The complexity of this timing comes from the inverse proportionality of the decisions.
For the first focus [reduce contagion rate] isolation is being enforced but isolation is contrary to improving the population’s immune systems. To improve the immune system we also need to make some conclusions of the existing pandemic, and it seems too soon for this. Eg: why the differences of mortality rates between countries, particularly Japan that also has a very dense and aged population. But in any case testing a large proportion of the population seems key to stop isolation and re-activate the productive system.
Based on this, it seems to me that, lack of any other solution, the One common action that is positive in both scenarios is to accept our reality and prepare better to deal with infections when [not if] they will come. This can be done at 2 levels:
- At a personal level, improving hygiene and re-setting our lifestyles for whatever conclusions we’ll take of this pandemic. This essentially is to pump up our immune system in a clever way that prepares us better. Note that this is exactly what a vaccine does anyway, so we’ll “vaccinate” ourselves by the way we eat, exercise and complement with vitamins, Iodine and whatever the conclusions and future developments will be.
- At a Governmental level we need to distinguish what is Global and what is “local”. Seems simple but these two “worlds” are in complete opposition right now and this is why nationalism, populism and self centered ideals are gaining popularity. This pandemic is most likely going to reinforce this trend. But what matters most is at a Global level, which is where most nations can grow the most. Globalization, if anything, requires clear and fair set of rules to abide by in order for everybody to win. The present situation is a clear lack of such rules, clearly evidenced by the US-China trade war primarily. The Institutions that were formed after WW2 [UN, IMF, World Bank, WHO] have failed, it is not working and it requires a rethink. This should not see the creation of new Institutions that simply come to patch the illness of the moment and quickly fall behind a trend of policy making which fails to see the big [global] picture, fails to see the impact 50 or 100 years from now. Humans, when left alone, have already shown how incapable we are to deal or solve complex matrices that precisely have a Global impact, we’ve lost control! This is what Global has become today, a complex matrix that can only be solved by AI that not only properly accounts for all the variables of such matrix, but does so unbiased and with the only purpose of planetary well being.
So what do I think about the future:
- Accept our reality, embrace death as the primary component of life. Spiritual.
- Stop the urge of life extension when this means battling a cronic illness.
- Embrace a healthy life that starts with connecting with our environment and enhances our natural immune system, after all this is the best vaccine we will ever find!
- Prevent rather than treat.
- AI influenced Global policy making, rethink a Global Institution and re-structure the present obsolete ones.
Can this be achieved? Seems difficult, but the good news is that if we, mankind, cannot achieve it, then Gaia will do it for us. We are a rapace species that have come to represent a plague to our environment like has never been seen before. We know now we cannot defeat our host, Gaia will always win!